▲ Now listing — waitlist open
A play-money market for the side projects the world hasn't caught onto yet. Back the makers you believe in. Build a track record of taste nobody can fake.
Imagine Polymarket, but instead of betting on elections, you're betting on which side projects will actually grow.
Imagine Product Hunt, but instead of a one-day launch spike, every project has a continuous price that moves with community conviction.
Imagine fantasy football, but the players are solo founders and the season never ends.
Every listed project gets a ticker and a starting price. Traders get $10,000 in play money on signup and back the ones they believe in. Prices move on peer-voted ELO and trading pressure. Monthly Hall of Fame winners pay dividends to their shareholders.
No real money. No fake metrics. Just conviction, priced.
Every Monday, new side projects IPO on the market. Each one gets a ticker, a starting price based on community voting, and a public page where traders can debate its merit.
You pick the ones you believe in. Spend play money to buy shares. Write a one-line thesis on each trade. Your portfolio value changes as the market reacts. Your commentary is public on your profile forever.
Fundamental value is driven by pairwise ELO battles and 7-day momentum. Speculation premium is driven by trading pressure. Hall of Fame winners pay monthly dividends. Fake metrics get punished by the market, not rewarded.
Fundamental valueis slow. It tracks community conviction through pairwise ELO battles. It rewards projects that win head-to-head comparisons and punishes the ones that don't.
Speculation premium is fast. It tracks trading pressure in the last 24 hours. When hype outruns fundamentals, the premium swells. When the correction comes, it pops.
Smart traders look for the gap between the two.
// The price of a project is two things added together
// One is honest (ELO). One is hype (trading).
function price(p) {
const fundamental =
p.elo
+ p.elo7dChange * 2
+ p.hallOfFame ? 500 : 0
const speculation =
(p.buys24h - p.sells24h) * 0.1
return fundamental + speculation
}New projects list every Monday, 09:00 UTC. The whole market watches.
Hall of Fame winners pay their shareholders in play money. Hold good projects, earn.
Your taste, measured over time. Hit-rate, portfolio return, all-time rank.
Every buy and sell gets a one-line thesis. Public on your profile. Permanent.
Watch the best traders. See their allocations. Copy them or disagree.
Every listing has its own thread. Focused debate, not general chat.
60-second daily digest. Top movers, your P&L, today's IPOs. One click back.
Biggest movers, new listings, Hall of Fame candidates. Delivered Sunday.
Bookmark projects. Get pinged when they move more than 5%.
Every tick, every trade, every thesis. Preserved forever on the project page.
Every listed project opted in. Makers see their buyers. Opt out in one click.
Legal in every jurisdiction. The game itself is the reward. Full stop.
Fake MRR screenshots. Curated user counts. Indie hackers claiming "$10K/month" from $3K in trials-not-customers.
The ecosystem has no refutation layer. Nobody can put skepticism on the record. The claims just hang in the air, other makers feel inadequate, and the grift works because there's no mechanism to price in disagreement.
longshot.market is the first place where a fake metrics claim has a price attached to it and gets punished by people who disagree.
Real markets expose fraud through short sellers and activist investors. We do the same — with play money, with public commentary, with a permanent record of who called what.
Traders short the speculation premium. Price corrects within days.
The project page thread fills with questions. Volume stays thin. Price decays.
No buyers after week one. Position becomes a meme. Commentary sticks forever.
longshot.market has discussions. It does not have a general chat.
Every project has its own thread. Traders debate it. Makers respond. Disagreements get priced. The result is concentrated signal instead of scattered opinions.
Trader profiles are public. Every position, every one-line thesis, every win and every loss is on the record. You can follow the best scouts, copy their allocations, or just read them to learn what taste looks like when someone has built it over years.
Community forms because everyone's looking at the same thing at the same time — and disagreeing.
Bought 50 @ 1420. Second time he's been right about a productivity tool. Thesis: they'll IPO on PH next week and the speculation premium hasn't priced it in.
Thanks @scout_42. Not planning PH launch this month but ty. We just shipped the team plan — see the update on the project page.
Sold my 30 shares. ELO climb is real but the valuation is ahead of itself. Waiting for the correction at ~1300.
Be first in line when the market opens. No spam. One email when we launch. That's it.